Thursday, 28 August 2008
Forex Trading Systems | ForexGen
Wednesday, 20 August 2008
ForexGen | Forex Currencies Reviews
The Sterling
(GBP) came under pressure early in the European session as the market digest
comments from hawkish BoE Member Beazley that inflation should moderate over time suggesting he did not vote for a rate hike at the last meeting. Cable followed the Euro higher as the Dollar weakened throughout the US session. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.8538 and a high of 1.8680 before closing the day at 1.8670 in the New York session. Looking Ahead, MPC Minutes from the August rate meeting and August CBI Orders is forecast at -12 from -8 in July.
(GBP) came under pressure early in the European session as the market digest
comments from hawkish BoE Member Beazley that inflation should moderate over time suggesting he did not vote for a rate hike at the last meeting. Cable followed the Euro higher as the Dollar weakened throughout the US session. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.8538 and a high of 1.8680 before closing the day at 1.8670 in the New York session. Looking Ahead, MPC Minutes from the August rate meeting and August CBI Orders is forecast at -12 from -8 in July.
(AUD) bounced in line with a rebound in the commodity complex. Earlier in the day the market digested and shrugged of some dovish minutes from the August RBA meeting suggesting an early rate cut was a possibility. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8625 and a high of 0.8734 before closing the US session at 0.8714.

(XAU) broke above $800 convincingly as the Feds inability to fight inflation saw Gold glitter again as a suitable inflation hedge. Overall trading with a low of USD$783 and high of USD$815 before ending the New York session at USD$814 an ounce.
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Tuesday, 19 August 2008
ForexGen | Forex Currencies Outlook
Trading (USD) lost ground against all currencies as weakness in the US housing sector dampened speculation of Fed Rate Hikes anytime this year. US financials were under pressure again and a spike higher in Oil hurt the general stock market. US PPI for July at 1.2% was
considerable higher than the 0.6% forecast but was dismissed as backwards looking and not containing the recent Oil correction. US housing data was harder to ignore as July Building Permits dropped to .94M from 1.14M in June a drop of 16.7%. Housing Starts also slumped to a 16 year low at 965K in July vs. 1066K in June. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 32 points (-1.35%) and the Dow Jones was down 130 points (-1.14%). Crude Oil closed up $1.66 ending the New York session at $114.53 per barrel. Looking ahead, Crude Inventories are seen rising 0.7M.
(EUR) bounced off lows grinding higher as economic data surprised to the upside. German PPI was white hot at 2.0% m/m in July vs. forecasts of 0.7%. The German ZEW Index rebounded to -55.5 from -63.9 but this was tempered by the ZEW current conditions falling to -9.2. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4630 and a high of 1.4794 before closing the day at 1.4780 in the New York session.

(JPY) a resurgence in risk aversion aided the yen to gain against the USD. Large gains in their respective majors for GBP and EUR meant the crosses were relatively unchanged after bouncing off lows of the Asian and European session. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.5% and downgraded the economic outlook. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 109.55 and a high of 110.33 before closing the day around 110.70 in the New York session.
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ForexGen | Australian dollar: Financials tarnish US dollar sentiment.

USD remained in favour in the London/NY overlap, with US July PPI even higher than expected. But US equity losses extended, ultimately pulling USD lower, about -0.7% from the NY morning highs. Financials came under renewed pressure, due to ex-IMF chief economist Rogoff's latest comments that the 'worst is yet to come' with bank failures and saying GSE equity holders 'should lose all their money.' A squeeze in oil also didn't help USD. In late trade, Lehmans sagged -13%, FRE -6%, MER and BoA -4%. Still, it wasn't all bad for the GSEs, as Freddie's $3bn 5yr bond issue went reasonably well.
AUD/USD chopped around 0.8640 to 0.8695 in London then squeezed a little higher in NY in sympathy with the euro. AUD/ NZD dipped as low as 1.2173 given the firm kiwi, steadying around 1.2210 in late NY. EUR/USD looked underwhelming in European trade, ranging from 1.4638 to 1.4710 before its short-covering squeeze sent it to 1.4790. USD/JPY was fairly soggy throughout London trade, slipping below 110.00 and showing little inclination to rally, given the DJIA opened 70pts lower and then slipped to -155pts before steadying. The New Zealand dollar tracked firmly higher, from its 0.7045 low in early London to as high as 0.7152 in the NY afternoon.
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ForexGen | Economic data and events

US PPI up 1.2% in July. The PPI jumped sharply in July, reflecting the tail end of the commodity price boom but also unexpected strength in core factory price pressures, as well as core input and intermediate prices. The surprise was the 0.7% jump in the core measure. It reflected a 1.4% jump in auto prices charged to dealers, and 0.8% for light trucks (which might help explain why auto sales are slumping); a 0.1% rise in clothing prices (still down in annual terms but the weaker US$ and transport costs might be impacting here); and a way above trend 0.8% increase in capital equipment prices (which make up nearly 40% of the core rate). Even though the headline PPI will be falling sharply from next month, if these core pressures persist, recent above trend rises in the core CPI might persist too, and that will be of particular concern to many at the Fed.
On that point, the Fed's most hawkish regional president, Richard Fisher from Dallas, said that 'the recent burst of cost-push inflation is giving the beast digestion problems that might manifest themselves in the form of a lingering inflationary fever'.
German ZEW improves from -63.9 to -55.5 in August. The ZEW expectations survey of 320 or so German analysts and economists posted a partial bounceback in August which we suspect reflects the recent depreciation of the euro, the less hawkish ECB, lower oil prices and the gains on the stockmarket over the past month. But the current measures continued to tumble, consistent with the fall in GBP growth we saw in Q2 and may well see repeated in Q3.
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